Russian wrinkle in the South China Sea

MANILA - A recently concluded three-day port call by three Russian warships in Manila has sparked speculation that Moscow may be angling to wade into the intensifying Spratly Islands dispute in the South China Sea. The warships, including the anti-submarine Admiral Panteleyev, came at a time two American destroyers - the USS Wayne E Meyer and the USS Chafee - dropped anchor off the coasts of Manila and Cebu, respectively.

The ships' presence coincided with renewed tensions between the Philippines and China over their conflicting claims to the potentially oil-and-gas rich Spratlys. Four other Asian countries - Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia and Vietnam - also lay claim to parts of the Spratlys and areas of the South China Sea that China has claimed as its own.

Philippine officials declined to link the docking of Russia's nuclear-armed vessels to its territorial row with China, claiming the visits were "routine". Avoiding any reference to the Spratlys, the officials justified the docking as part of a bilateral agreement Manila and Moscow signed in December 2009.

That accord, seen as part of Moscow's rivalry with Washington for strategic influence in the Asia-Pacific region, called for an exchange of defense and military delegations between the two countries. Under the accord, both sides also agreed to strengthen bilateral cooperation in tackling threats of terrorism, piracy, and transnational crimes.

"We have an existing memorandum of agreement between our Department of National Defense and the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation," Philippine Navy spokesperson Lt Col Omar Tonsay said when queried about the Russian ships' arrival.

A Russian envoy in Manila, Nikolay Kudashev, said, "I'm confident that the contacts between our navies reflect our countries' commitment to countering common challenges and threats."

Asked whether Moscow would play a role in easing tensions fueled by the Spratlys row, he said Moscow remained open to such a possibility. "Whenever you need our advice and experience, we will be most welcome to extend it," he told reporters at a Manila port following the arrival of the Russian battleships.

He later clarified that, as much as possible, Moscow would not interfere in the maritime dispute, noting that it is regional in nature. "Naturally, we would not like to interfere or to impose in any way our will upon China and the Philippines. They are both our friends and partners," the Russian envoy said.

Those mixed messages are in sharp contrast with Washington's high-profile stance in the Spratlys dispute. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said at an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting in Hanoi last year that the US had a "national interest" in the area.

The next destination for the Russian warships, which came from the Gulf of Aden on a mission to protect ships from pirate attacks, was unknown when they left port. Russian media on Sunday reported that they were due in Vladivostok that day, citing the fleet's spokesman. They had arrived in Manila on January 31 for the three-day visit.

Analysts said they would likely remain in the vicinity to monitor the upcoming "war games" between US and Philippine involving 1,500 American and Filipino marines. For the first time in years, the joint military exercises will be held near the disputed Spratly islands, a move that could put US and Philippine forces perilously close to a naval confrontation with China.

Though China has not yet reacted to the latest Russian and US twists in its maritime row with the Philippines, some of its hawkish Politburo officials had earlier warned of resorting to force to enforce its "indisputable sovereign" claims to the potentially oil-rich chain of islands and other islets in the vast South China sea. Manila officials, however, said the joint US maneuvers - set to last from March to April this year - will only take place within the Philippine-claimed areas of the Spratlys or within the country's 200-mile (321.8 kilometer) exclusive economic zone.

For the first time, too, the joint exercises will stage a new mode of amphibious training: how to defend and retake an oil and gas platform from imaginary enemies, or "terrorists." China may feel alluded to by such a tag as its patrol vessels have frequently harassed prospecting foreign oil firms and Filipino fishermen in the west Philippine sea, prompting Manila to lodge diplomatic protests.

For instance, Dutch oil multinational Shell has existing drilling operations in Palawan province, particularly in Malampaya, west of Manila. Last month, the company paid US$1.1 billion to the Philippine government in royalties, the bulk of which will apparently be used to bankroll the Armed Forces of the Philippines' (AFP) modernization program.

It is unclear if the presence of Russian ships in the area is linked to any future energy deals Moscow may hope to strike in the Philippines-claimed areas of the South China Sea.

Provocative games

The "war games" with Washington come amid talk that the US plans to ramp up its military presence in the Philippines, including the establishment of a naval outpost in the west Philippine sea to help the AFP ward off repeated intrusions by Chinese naval gunboats. The outpost could house some of the 4,000 American marines the US plans to redeploy on a rotational basis from Okinawa, Japan, to Australia, Hawaii, Guam and the Philippines.

The redeployment, part of Washington's new defense strategy to shift focus from Iraq and Afghanistan to the Asia-Pacific vis-a-vis China's rise as a military power in the region, will be tackled in next month's high-level meeting of senior US and Philippine officials in Manila. US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are expected to attend the meeting with Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario and Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin.

US Assistant Secretary of State for Political and Military Affairs Andrew Shapiro has just ended his three-day visit to Manila to lay the groundwork for next month's meeting of American and Filipino foreign affairs and defense officials. The upcoming meeting will discuss ways on how the US can beef up the Philippines' defense capability vis-a-vis China's aggressiveness in asserting its territorial claims to the Spratlys.

That could mean an expanded US military presence in the Philippines, a highly sensitive political issue after American bases at Subic and Clark were closed amid a wave of nationalism in 2000. Some 600 US Special Forces troops are stationed in the Philippines, helping government security forces battle Islamic militants in strife-torn Mindanao.

Philippines officials have consistently ruled out the reestablishment of US bases, citing the country's constitution which bans the presence of foreign military installations. However, the sense of urgency for external defense amid China's perceived as expansionist tendencies has spurred Manila to turn to Washington for succor short of compromising the anti-bases provision of its laws.

In the second US-Philippines strategic dialogue held in Washington last month, Manila agreed to allow the US to raise the level of its security engagement, an offer which has drawn protests from nationalist and leftist groups. In turn, Washington agreed to Manila's request for a second warship but has so far kept mum on the possible supply of F-16s and other modern armaments.

Similarly, the US also acceded to return the weapons system, communications equipment and other state-of-the art gear it stripped from the Hamilton-class naval cutter it turned over to the AFP late last year. As with the first warship, the second one will be availed of by the Philippines under the US Foreign Military Sales Program, a component of the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty signed in 1951.

Given the paradigm shifts in US-Philippine defense cooperation, it is not surprising that Russia is suddenly flexing their naval muscle in the region. And while Manila looks to Washington for strategic reassurance vis-à-vis Beijing, it has also kept its door open to Moscow and stirred further the South China Sea's troubled waters.