Federal Defence Minister Stephen Smith has warned of a potential capability gap between the retirement of the ageing Collins submarines and arrival of new submarines.
Mr Smith said the project to acquire the 12 new submarines, promised in the 2009 Defence White Paper, would be the largest and most complex defence project ever undertaken in Australia.
But with complexity came risk, he said.
"Because the submarines will be constructed over the course of the next three decades, there is a risk of a capability gap between the retirement of the Collins submarines and entry into service of the Future Submarines," he told the Australian Defence Magazine congress in Canberra on Tuesday.
A capability gap means Australia may have only a small number of submarines, or none at all, available to conduct operations in the period between retirement of the Collins boats and arrival of their replacements.
Mr Smith's warning follows a similar one last week from the head of the future submarine project Rear Admiral Rowan Moffitt who said it could take two decades for delivery of the first of an all-new submarine design.
However, the government has yet to decide whether to opt for an all-new or existing design or an existing design with some modifications to meet specific Australian requirements.
The government has stipulated only that it won't be nuclear and will be made in South Australia.
Mr Smith said the end of life of the Collins boats wasn't yet known and Defence Materiel Organisation head Warren King had noted that a modified off-the-shelf design could be operational within a decade.
In the meantime, the government has to manage six troubled Collins submarines which perform well when in the water but don't get there often enough.
Mr Smith said the Coles Review, released in December, would play an important role in guiding the way the Collins submarines were sustained.
"It's taken governments of both political persuasions over two decades too long to come to this point," he said.
"There is substantial improvement that we can make in maintenance and sustainment."
Mr Smith said one of the big mistakes with Collins was that the failure to take into account what a challenge and a burden maintenance and sustainment would be.
"That's not a mistake that we'll make with the future program. There are a lot of lessons from Collins that we have and will learn for the planning of the future submarine program," he said.
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